With the 2020 State of Ohio Pappy Van Winkle and Buffalo Trace Antique Collection Lottery winners announced, I want to do a quick debrief. I reached out to the State to ask how many entries they had for each lottery and was told that all-in, they received 99,836 entries overall. The breakout to each lottery was 98,923 entries for the Pappy lottery and 94,608 for the Buffalo Trace Antique Collection. This puts the final odds of winning at 0.0036% for the Pappy (around 1 in 300) and .0052% for Buffalo Trace (around 1 in 200).
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Wednesday, January 20, 2021
2020 State of Ohio Pappy & Buffalo Trace Debrief
Next, let's look at how these numbers compare to past lotteries done by the State... As you can see in the chart below, these are the worst odds so far of any Pappy or Buffalo Trace Holiday lottery due to the increase in entries and the decrease in Pappy bottles.
Columbus Dispatch said the odds of this happening were around 4%, but that sure doesn't sound right and I've seen lots of forum posts calling into question the integrity of the lottery. I'm going to side with random events happen randomly so it certainly is within the realm of possibility. I just hate that I wasn't one of the 5 who won both.
The final number of bottles available were:
Pappy Van Winkle:
10 Year - 202 bottles
12 Year - 123
15 Year - 49
20 Year - 4
23 Year - 2
Buffalo Trace Antique Collection:
George T. Stagg - 146 bottles
Thomas H. Handy - 146
William Larue Weller - 94
Eagle Rare 17 - 71
Sazerac Rye 18 - 36
If you were a winner or one of the five double winners, congratulations. If you're one of the 98k who didn't win like me, we'll get em next year!