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Thursday, March 18, 2021

What are the Odds? An Updated Lottery Breakdown

Since we're in the middle of another OHLQ lottery, I thought it might be a fun exercise to go through past lotteries and re-visit what the actual odds of winning. The below chart shows all the lotteries since I've been tracking... the number of available bottles... and the number of entries. 

As you can see, the best odds were for the Weller Full Proof where entrants had a 5.42% chance of winning or better than 1 in 20. The reason for the good odds are that there were a lot of supply (2000 bottles) and demand was lower than usual with only 36,000 people trying to win the opportunity to purchase a bottle. 

On the flip side, the lottery with the worst odds was the 2020 Mister Sam where there was a 0.02% chance of winning or around 1 in 4400. This was due to only having 6 bottles available and over 27,000 entries. 

For the Blanton's lottery going on know, I reached out to the State to find out how many bottles of each are available for the lottery. They didn't provide specifics, but said there are almost 1400 bottles available. Blanton's is without question the most popular bourbon that brings visitors to this site through search. As you can see from the image below, Blanton's makes up 2 of the top 4 queries that bring people to the site and E.H. Taylor makes up 2 of the top 7 queries. Because of this, I expect demand to be strong for this lottery and the final odds to be in the 1-2% range. As always, I'll do a post once winners are announced and I can get a count on the total number of entries. 

If you haven't entered yet, you can do so at this link.


  1. Dang... so not a great chance. I hope we both win though!

    1. This is ally I dunno why my name is Qwerty when I’m logged in google haha